Our scary near future, if nothing changes.
1 million infected in each European Country and the US at the beginning of April with more than 200,000 new infections every day.
10 million sick each country around April 12.
At a 1% mortality rate(case fatality rate), 100,000 will be dead per country. (CFR 3.4, over 5 in Italy)
At a projected 20% hospitalization rate will need 2,000,000 beds with around 400,000 ventilators (20%).
"The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is rapidly spreading throughout the world. In the United States, the disease is expected to infect 20-60 percent of the population before the pandemic finishes its course. The recent experience in Italy has highlighted the critical need to ensure adequate capacity of inpatient and intensive care beds for what is likely to be a surge of seriously ill patients.
To assess the capacity of U.S. hospitals to care for the impending number of hospitalized patients, we merged hospital infrastructure data from the 2018 American Hospital Association (AHA) Annual Survey and the American Hospital Directory. We calculated average inpatient and ICU occupancy rates from annualized inpatient bed days.
We used population estimates from the U.S. Census American Communities Survey to project likely numbers of infected patients, hospitalization rates and ICU utilization rates based on existing data from recently published reports.
We adjusted these rates across communities by proportion of people who were age 65 or over, as data suggests that hospitalization rates vary by age.
We used a middle-level estimate of COVID-19 infection rate of 40 percent and assumed lengths of stay based on published studies.
We calculated the capacity gap between current bed occupancy and anticipated COVID-19 demand assuming six, 12 and 18 month transmission curves. In our primary model, we made the very aggressive assumption that 50 percent of currently occupied beds could be freed up to care for COVID-19 patients.
Nationally, based on the lower 40 percent prevalence of COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, we estimate that 98,876,254 individuals will be infected, 20,598,725 individuals will likely require hospitalization and 4,430,245 individuals will need ICU-level care. " [2]
1 in very 8 or 9 wonāt make it and any of the survivors of hospitalization with ARDS and secondary pneumonia will look at long term lung damage, heart damage, and/or kidney damage.
Imperial College in London recently aggregated worldwide data to build estimates that may provide a truer picture of the actual fatality rate.
Their report estimates an overall fatality rate of 0.9%, which swells to 9.3% for cases involving patients 80 and older. They also calculated a 2.2% mortality rate for people in their 60s and a 5.1% rate for those in their 70s.) [3]
Make this clear to everyone!!! And take social distancing serious!
Wash your filthy hands, donāt cough or sneeze uncovered, and keep your sorry Typhoid Mary butts at home.
Because, you spread this particular virus for days before you know your sick!!
If we donāt knock it out cold now, it will be back this next winter with a vengeance.
(Do your part! Kill Bugs!!.Service grants citizenship, Iām doing my part! Do you want to know more ?(I wish!)) [4]
[1] Flattening the COVID-19 Curves - Scientific American Blog Network
[2] https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.457910/full/
[3] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
[4] Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein, 15 May 1987 978-0441783588,
